Too often we come to conclusions based on an unproven premise. We are a tough and determined lot, we believe what we believe and if you disagree, well GFY.
We’re often wrong. It’s good to be wrong…internally. Not so good to be wrong publicly.
As the PAO you have to challenge the premise.
The premise is the base. It’s easy to assume the premise is true and focus on the rest of the argument.
You will make your organization better if you make it a rule to challenge the premise. You don’t have to stand up in the middle of a meeting and yell. You can do it privately, with your colleagues or whatever. I like to think through our premises at the pull up bars.
Ask yourself one question specific to whatever is the topic of the day, “Is what we believe to be true, actually proven or is it assumed?
Example Traps:
Premise: Suicides are a result of PTSD. Dangerous conclusion, we must focus suicide prevention on those who have experienced combat.
Premise: Our unit is undisciplined. Dangerous conclusion, we are having safety violations because we are undisciplined.
Premise: The enemy has X intent. Dangerous conclusion, the enemy is doing A because of X.
Premise: The enemy is dumb. The enemy is calculated. Dangerous conclusion, the enemy is acting rationally or irrationally.
Premise: These events are correlated or these events are random. Dangerous conclusion, you can or can not effect one thing by changing the other.
Check this. The premise: Iran provided the Houthis this missile which was launched into Yemen, violating sanctions. The challenge, how does the US know that? Answer, Saudi Arabia said so.
I don’t know what the truth is but I do know the organization was ill prepared for a reporter to challenge the premise…probably because the PAO never did.
